Utagawa Hiroshige 歌川 広重
Snow at Akabane Bridge in Shiba (Shiba Akabane no yuki),
from the series “Famous Places in the Eastern Capital (Toto meisho)”
(c. 1843/47)

"… this will most likely get really ugly before we recover our Prosperity again."

When a political party or ideology takes the US Presidency, it carries a few scant obligations to the American people and, indeed, to the people of the world. As the long-standing designated elephant in the room, the US economy exerts a uniquely influential gravity. This alone implies great responsibility, since so many other struggling economies rely on its stability. These factors and others have historically encouraged a certain moderation. It’s one thing to be powerful enough to do whatever you want, but quite another to be wise enough to restrain that discretionary power to better ensure overall welfare. Economies cannot afford to have many enemies. Few headlines scream what radical initiative a President chose not to choose. Properly managed, an economy should not be featured in many front-page, above-the-fold stories. The discussion of economics should remain dismal enough to nudge it well off the front page of everything, save an occasional Wall Street Journal.

Our incumbent was never anybody’s slave to wisdom or tradition. He seeks headlines. He seems to believe that the front page space above that fold belongs to him, so he attempts and often succeeds in creating upsets adequate to at least fill that space with shocked reportage. He’s in it for the coverage. He overplays the notion that there’s never any such thing as bad ink, so he pursues notoriety even when it erodes the public’s perception of his performance in his job. He appears to be in everything for the exclusive benefit of himself, for he’s rich and famous, or so his legend insists, so it’s always first his job to solidify that notion in pretty much every action he undertakes. Even economics gets dressed up in some silly spangly costume and forced to perform on some ill-lit stage. He seeks the greatest that ever existed from every transaction, every deal he attempts, thereby violating that sacred first rule of the Presidency he was never really qualified to fulfill: Don’t fuck with the trim. Everything economic in moderation.

Prosperity utterly depends on economics not being front-page news. Head back through history and locate the times when Prosperity thrived. You will find economics properly relegated to the back pages of the business section, well after the latest flatter piece about some colorful CEO’s proclivities. In those times, economics amounts to nothing more than transactions: buy, sell, steady returns, little speculation. Few feel moved to short stock. Fewer still engage in such questionable innovations as cryptocurrency or other delusional Get Poor Quickly Schemes. Inflation’s in check because nobody’s trying to make a killing. Unemployment’s falling because optimism’s rising. The American Dream seems reasonable during these times, and people naturally engage as if they will succeed. We become a society of self-presumed winners. Not jackpot winners, but the quieter, more contemplative kind, satisfied with our trajectory and not seeking speculative returns. The time value of money rules for the time.

Our sorry incumbent chose impatience as his central governing principle, as sorry a choice as any President has ever made. He invoked illegal tariffs, which were illegal for damned good reasons, and attempted, in a delusional end run, to produce instant luxury rather than to maintain that old reliable easier-going Prosperity. He might be excused for his delusion, for he had no experience with Prosperity before assuming the role that might be referred to as the Prosperity Watchdog In Chief. He had been PreProsperous, wealthy at best, but more mythical than actual. He had a skillful PR operation dedicated to making him appear beyond Prosperous when, in practice, he’d never once achieved the eases Prosperity quite naturally provides. He survived in a dog-eat-dog world where more than his culinary preferences suffered. He had never once experienced the finer things in life, so he settled for serving more and ever bigger dogs. Economies never thrive as dogfights.

His strategy seemed simple enough. He would impose some ruinous tariff, then claim that the resulting tax revenue rendered us wealthy, though it didn’t. When the people complained about the sudden scarcity of some previously reliable commodity, he would dramatically eliminate his illegal “wealth-creating” tariffs and encourage producers to dump their newly protected product into our market. He did this with oil during his first term, and thereby quickly shut down all domestic oil production, leaving us dependent upon the Saudis, perhaps the least reliable supplier imaginable. Now, he’s announced the same strategy to resolve a troublesome beef shortage. He’s encouraged foreign producers to dump their product on our market, resulting, as he announced, in an imminent probable 25% drop in retail ground beef prices. Of course, this crude little market manipulation will undercut domestic beef producers who are already underwater due to the effects of an historic drought in the country. He’s so busy fucking with the economics that he can’t see how he’s undermining the economy. This behavior reliably produces only PhonyProsperity.

The loyal cult members won’t notice the difference at first. The number of people suffering will increase until something different happens. Someone will doubtless propose Radical strategies. None of them will resolve what only moderation might curtail. It should not be surprising that an incumbent who sponsors an Indy car race on the streets of our nation’s capital would manage our economy in exclusively unhelpful ways, and thereby violate the chief economic responsibility of every incumbent since George Washington. Most incumbents succeeded in moderating their baser instincts to steer some semblance of a steady course. Those who’ve attempted to get rich quick got poorer much quicker than they otherwise could have. Great risk does not encourage even greater responsibility; it seems to induce a recklessness that guarantees everybody gets royally screwed until wiser hands take over the steering. He’s driving us off a cliff again. I pray that what’s left of our economy has a little glide built into it. Either way, this will most likely get really ugly before we recover our Prosperity again.

©2026 by David A. Schmaltz - all rights reserved

Tags: #Prosperity, #PureSchmaltz